<p><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">Вот и наступил май. Старая трейдерская пословица “Продавай все в мае и иди прочь” задевает различные регионы, такие как США, Европа и Азия.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3"> </span></p><p><span style="font-family: Calibri;" face="Calibri"><span style="font-size: medium;" size="3">С 1999 года, средний показатель в различных регионах составляет 0.8%, с зафиксированным за последние годы негативным показателем в 58%. Лучший показатель был в 2009 году и составлял 9.5%. С другой стороны, следующий 2010 год был отмечен с худшим показателем в -10.2%. </span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3"> </span></p><p><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">Среди трех регионов, поговорка лучше всего работает в Европейском регионе, где за последние годы отмечен негативный показатель 68%. Азиатско-Тихоокеанский регион находится недалеко от негативных показателей, где он составляет 63%. Поговорка не совсем справедлива для США, где негативный показатель составляет всего 37%. Поэтому, США сейчас является лучшим местом для того, чтобы избежать любых майских распродаж. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3"> </span></p><p><span style="font-family: Calibri;" face="Calibri"><span style="font-size: medium;" size="3">В этом году, рынок акций консолидировался в пределах диапазона, поскольку он приспосабливается к новой фазе от Goldilocks до режима Reflation. За 1й квартал 2018 года рост прибыли был сильным и несколько компаний сообщили о более высоких доходах, чем ожидалось. Более сильный рост прибыли и постепенный рост процентных ставок обеспечили поддержку фондовых рынков. Тенденция к торговой войне также снизилась, поскольку ожидается, что делегация США высокого уровня, которая, как ожидается, посетит Китай для решения торговых вопросов между двумя странами. Усовершенствование торгово-торговых отношений между США и Китаем может повысить риск активов и избежать негативных результатов в мае.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3"> </span></p><p><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">С другой стороны, 10-летняя доходность США поднялась до 3-процентного уровня с ростом доллара США выше 200-дневной скользящей средней до 92,37. Несмотря на то, что геополитическая напряженность на Корейском полуострове отменилась, она выросла в регионе Ближнего Востока. США вместе с Великобританией и Францией недавно начали ракетные удары в Сирии. Напряженность между Израилем и Ираном в Сирии также обостряется в преддверии критического крайнего срока для иранской ядерной сделки 12 мая. Любой затяжной конфликт на Ближнем Востоке или увеличение ставки, превышающее ожидаемое, может стать шоком для рынка и привести к распродаже в мае.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3"> </span></p><p><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">Афоризм “ Продавай все в мае и иди прочь” может оказаться правдой в этом мае.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3"> </span></p><p><span style="font-family: Calibri;" face="Calibri"><span style="font-size: medium;" size="3"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Показатель индекса </span><span style="text-decoration: underline;">MSCI</span><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> (</span><span style="text-decoration: underline;">USD</span><span style="text-decoration: underline;">) в мае</span></span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3"> </span></p><table width="508" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td width="112" nowrap="nowrap"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">Год</span></p></td><td width="91" nowrap="nowrap"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">США</span></p></td><td width="91" nowrap="nowrap"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">   Европа</span></p></td><td width="115" nowrap="nowrap"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">Азиатско-</span></p><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">Тихоокеанский регион</span></p></td><td width="100" nowrap="nowrap"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">Средняя годовая</span></p></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">2017</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">1.1</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">3.9</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">2.6</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">2.5</span></p></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">2016</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">1.6</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-1.2</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-1.6</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-0.4</span></p></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">2015</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">1.1</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-1.4</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-1.3</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-0.5</span></p></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">2014</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">2.2</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">0.2</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">3.2</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">1.8</span></p></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">2013</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">1.9</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-0.2</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-5.1</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-1.1</span></p></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">2012</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-6.4</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-13.0</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-10.2</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-9.8</span></p></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">2011</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-1.3</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-4.1</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-2.3</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-2.6</span></p></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">2010</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-8.3</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-12.6</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-9.8</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-10.2</span></p></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">2009</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">5.2</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">11.2</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">12.2</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">9.5</span></p></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">2008</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">1.4</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-0.5</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">0.0</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">0.3</span></p></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">2007</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">3.3</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">0.9</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">2.7</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">2.3</span></p></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">2006</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-3.2</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-3.8</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-6.6</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-4.5</span></p></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">2005</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">3.1</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-0.2</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">0.0</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">1.0</span></p></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">2004</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">1.2</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">1.0</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-3.1</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-0.3</span></p></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">2003</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">5.2</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">6.0</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">5.3</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">5.5</span></p></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">2002</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-0.9</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-1.2</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">3.8</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">0.6</span></p></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">2001</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">0.5</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-5.4</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-0.3</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-1.7</span></p></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">2000</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-2.7</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">0.0</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-5.8</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-2.9</span></p></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">1999</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-2.4</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-4.8</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-5.3</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-4.2</span></p></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">Средняя за 19 лет</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">0.1</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-1.3</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-1.1</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-0.8</span></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p><span style="font-family: Calibri;" face="Calibri"><span style="font-size: medium;" size="3"><i>Источник</i><i>: Bloomberg</i></span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3"> </span></p><p><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3"> </span></p><p><b><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">Edmund Chan, CFA</span></b></p>