<p><span>美国和中国之间经济冲突的下一阶段可能是货币战争。</span><span> </span><span>如果中国在下一次美国财政部报告中被标记为汇率操纵国，那么可能会出现这种情况。</span></p><p><span><span title="1. China as a currency manipulator"><strong>1.中国是货币操纵国</strong></span></span><span><span title="1. China as a currency manipulator"><br /></span></span></p><p><span><span title="China could be labelled as a currency manipulator as early as next week.">早在下周，中国就可以被称为汇率操纵国。</span><span title="The US Treasury report of “Foreign Exchange Policies of Major Trading Partners of the United States” is expected to be published in the middle of April.">美国财政部关于“美国主要贸易伙伴的外汇政策”的报告预计将在四月中出版。</span><span title="This report reviews the major currency policies of top trading partners of the US and could be used as a tool in the trade war between the US and China.">本报告回顾了美国主要贸易伙伴的主要货币政策，并可用作美中贸易战的工具。<br /></span><span title="In the October 2017 report, the US Treasury avoided naming China as a currency manipulator.">在2017年10月的报告中，美国财政部避免将中国称为汇率操纵国。</span><span title="A reason could be the avoidance of strain relationship with China as Trump was slated to visit China in November.">原因可能是避免与中国之间的紧张关系，因为特朗普将在11月份访问中国。<br /></span><span title="Trump has also avoided tagging China as a currency manipulator as it requires China’s help in controlling the nuclear threat from North Korea.">特朗普也避免将中国标记为汇率操纵国，因为它需要中国帮助控制来自朝鲜的核威胁。</span></span><span><span title="Trump has also avoided tagging China as a currency manipulator as it requires China’s help in controlling the nuclear threat from North Korea."><br /></span></span></p><p><span><span title="Today, the situation has reversed.">今天，情况已经逆转。</span><span title="The relationship between President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jung Un are less tense and they could even be meeting in the near future.">特朗普总统与朝鲜领导人金正恩的关系不那么紧张，他们甚至可能在不久的将来会面。</span><span title="On the other hand, the bond between the US and China has deteriorated and they are engaged in a testy trade war.">另一方面，美国和中国之间的纽带恶化，他们正在进行一场激烈的贸易战。</span><span title="Therefore, Trump could use this opportunity to label China as a currency manipulator and further escalate trade war tensions.">因此，特朗普可以借此机会将中国视为汇率操纵国，并进一步加剧贸易战的紧张局势。</span><span title=""></span></span></p><p><span><span title="Therefore, Trump could use this opportunity to label China as a currency manipulator and further escalate trade war tensions."><span title="2. Criteria for currency manipulator label"><strong>2.汇率操纵标签的标准</strong></span></span></span><span><span title="Therefore, Trump could use this opportunity to label China as a currency manipulator and further escalate trade war tensions."><span title="2. Criteria for currency manipulator label"><br /></span></span></span></p><p><span><span title="Therefore, Trump could use this opportunity to label China as a currency manipulator and further escalate trade war tensions."><span title="A country has to fulfil three criteria for the label of currency manipulator.">一个国家必须满足货币操纵者标签的三个标准。</span><span title="The criteria includes: (1) a significant bilateral trade surplus with the United States, (2) a material current account surplus, and (3) engaged in persistent one‐sided intervention in the foreign exchange market.">标准包括：（1）与美国的双边贸易顺差显着，（2）有重大经常项目顺差，（3）对外汇市场持续进行单方面干预。<br /></span><span title="In the October 2017 Report, US Treasury classified China in the “monitoring list” despite only fulfilling one out of three criteria.">在2017年10月的报告中，美国财政部将中国列为“监测名单”，尽管只有三个标准中的一个。</span><span title="A country is on the “monitoring list” only if it fulfils at least two of the critieria.">一个国家只有在满足至少两个批评标准的情况下才能进入“监测名单”。</span><span title="The reason is that China accounts for a “large and disproportionate share” of the overall US trade deficit.">原因在于中国在美国整体贸易逆差中占有“大而不成比例的份额”。 </span><span title="For 2017, China accounts for US$375bn of trade deficit with the US, out of which are US$506bn imports and US$130bn exports.">2017年，中国与美国的贸易逆差达到3,759亿美元，其中进口额为5,060亿美元，出口额为1,300亿美元。</span></span></span><span><span title="Therefore, Trump could use this opportunity to label China as a currency manipulator and further escalate trade war tensions."><span title="For 2017, China accounts for US$375bn of trade deficit with the US, out of which are US$506bn imports and US$130bn exports."><br /></span></span></span></p><p><span><span title="Therefore, Trump could use this opportunity to label China as a currency manipulator and further escalate trade war tensions."><span title="The last time that China was labelled as a currency manipulator is during the period between 1992 and 1994. China was accused of weakening the Chinese Yuan and restricting the access for the US goods.">中国最后一次被称为货币操纵国的时间是1992年至1994年。中国被指控削弱人民币汇率并限制美国商品的进入。 </span><span title="The tag was removed at the end of 1994 after China took measures to reform its trade and currency policies.">1994年底，中国采取措施改革贸易和货币政策后，标签被删除。</span><span title="Therefore, any label on China could stretch for months and result in a large overhang on markets for a long time.">因此，中国的任何标签都可能延续数月，并导致市场长期处于悬置状态。</span><span title=""></span></span></span></p><p><span><span title="Therefore, Trump could use this opportunity to label China as a currency manipulator and further escalate trade war tensions."><span title=""><strong>3.操纵报告</strong></span></span></span><span><span title="Therefore, Trump could use this opportunity to label China as a currency manipulator and further escalate trade war tensions."><span title=""><br /></span></span></span></p><p><span><span title="Therefore, Trump could use this opportunity to label China as a currency manipulator and further escalate trade war tensions."><span title=""><span>离岸人民币在过去的一年中已经增长了超过9％。</span><span> </span><span>这削弱了中国作为汇率操纵国的情况。</span><span> </span><span>然而，这种货币现实在持续的贸易战中没有任何作用。</span><span> </span><span>双方都希望占据上风，保护国内市场。</span><span> </span><span>美国总统特朗普可能将与中国的巨额贸易逆差作为汇率操纵国的标签。</span><br /><span>具有讽刺意味的是，美国财政部的报告可能会被操纵，将中国列为汇率操纵国。</span></span></span></span></p><p><span><span title="Therefore, Trump could use this opportunity to label China as a currency manipulator and further escalate trade war tensions."><span title=""><span><strong><span>Edmund Chan, CFA</span></strong><br /></span></span></span></span></p><p></p>