<p><span style="font-size: medium;" size="3">五月份已经到来<span style="font-family: Calibri;" face="Calibri">. </span>我们考察了美国，欧洲和亚洲三个不同地区的<span style="font-family: Calibri;" face="Calibri">“</span>五月出售并走开<span style="font-family: Calibri;" face="Calibri">”</span>的旧市场格言<span style="font-family: Calibri;" face="Calibri">. </span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3"> </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;" size="3">自<span style="font-family: Calibri;" face="Calibri">1999</span>年以来<span style="font-family: Calibri;" face="Calibri">, </span>五个地区在三个地区的平均表现为<span style="font-family: Calibri;" face="Calibri">-0.8</span>％，其中<span style="font-family: Calibri;" face="Calibri">58</span>％的表现为负面表现<span style="font-family: Calibri;" face="Calibri">. 2009</span>年的表现最好，表现为<span style="font-family: Calibri;" face="Calibri">9.5</span>％<span style="font-family: Calibri;" face="Calibri">. </span>另一方面，第二年在<span style="font-family: Calibri;" face="Calibri">2010</span>年录得最差的表现<span style="font-family: Calibri;" face="Calibri">--10.2</span>％<span style="font-family: Calibri;" face="Calibri">. </span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3"> </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;" size="3">在这三个地区中，格言在欧洲效果最好，该地区多年来录得<span style="font-family: Calibri;" face="Calibri">68</span>％的负面表现<span style="font-family: Calibri;" face="Calibri">. </span>亚太地区的表现并不遥远，其中<span style="font-family: Calibri;" face="Calibri">63</span>％的年份表现不佳<span style="font-family: Calibri;" face="Calibri">. </span>这句格言对美国来说并不适用，只有<span style="font-family: Calibri;" face="Calibri">37</span>％的年份出现负面表现<span style="font-family: Calibri;" face="Calibri">. </span>因此，美国是<span style="font-family: Calibri;" face="Calibri">5</span>月份任何抛售的最佳地点<span style="font-family: Calibri;" face="Calibri">. </span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3"> </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;" size="3"><span style="font-family: Calibri;" face="Calibri">今年, 股票市</span>场已经在一个范围内巩固了，因为它调整了从<span style="font-family: Calibri;" face="Calibri">Goldilocks到Reflation制度的新</span>阶段<span style="font-family: Calibri;" face="Calibri">. 盈利增</span>长强劲，一些公司报告<span style="font-family: Calibri;" face="Calibri">1Q18盈利好于市</span>场预期<span style="font-family: Calibri;" face="Calibri">. 更强</span>劲的收益增长和利率的逐步上升为股市提供了支持<span style="font-family: Calibri;" face="Calibri">. 随着美国高</span>层代表团预计访问中国解决两国贸易问题，贸易战局势也出现下滑<span style="font-family: Calibri;" face="Calibri">. 美中</span>贸易关系的改善可能会刺激风险资产并避免<span style="font-family: Calibri;" face="Calibri">5月份的</span>负面表现<span style="font-family: Calibri;" face="Calibri">.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3"> </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;" size="3"><span style="font-family: Calibri;" face="Calibri">另一方面, 美国10年期国</span>债收益率攀升至<span style="font-family: Calibri;" face="Calibri">3％，美元升至200日均</span>线上方至<span style="font-family: Calibri;" face="Calibri">92.37. 虽然地</span>缘政治紧张局势在朝鲜半岛已经解除，但在中东地区已经上升<span style="font-family: Calibri;" face="Calibri">. 美国与英国和法国一起，最近在叙利</span>亚发动导弹袭击<span style="font-family: Calibri;" face="Calibri">. 在叙利</span>亚和以色列之间的紧张局势也在伊朗核协议的截止日期为<span style="font-family: Calibri;" face="Calibri">5月12日的</span>临界点之前升级<span style="font-family: Calibri;" face="Calibri">. 中</span>东地区任何长期的冲突或加息速度超过预期都可能对市场形成冲击，并导致<span style="font-family: Calibri;" face="Calibri">5月份出</span>现抛售<span style="font-family: Calibri;" face="Calibri">. </span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3"> </span></p><p><span style="font-family: Calibri;" face="Calibri"><span style="font-size: medium;" size="3">“5月份出售 和 走开”  格言今年5月仍然可能成立.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3"> </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;" size="3"><span style="font-family: Calibri;" face="Calibri"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">5</span><span style="text-decoration: underline;">月份</span><span style="text-decoration: underline;">MSCI</span><span style="text-decoration: underline;">指数表</span></span><span style="text-decoration: underline;">现</span><span style="text-decoration: underline;">（美元）</span></span><span style="text-decoration: underline;"></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3"> </span></p><table width="508" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td width="112" nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-size: medium;" size="3">年</span></p></td><td width="91" nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-size: medium;" size="3">美国</span></p></td><td width="91" nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-size: medium;" size="3">欧洲</span></p></td><td width="115" nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-size: medium;" size="3">亚洲与太平洋</span></p></td><td width="100" nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-size: medium;" size="3">年平均</span></p></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">2017</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">1.1</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">3.9</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">2.6</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">2.5</span></p></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">2016</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">1.6</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-1.2</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-1.6</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-0.4</span></p></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">2015</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">1.1</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-1.4</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-1.3</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-0.5</span></p></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">2014</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">2.2</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">0.2</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">3.2</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">1.8</span></p></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">2013</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">1.9</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-0.2</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-5.1</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-1.1</span></p></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">2012</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-6.4</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-13.0</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-10.2</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-9.8</span></p></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">2011</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-1.3</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-4.1</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-2.3</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-2.6</span></p></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">2010</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-8.3</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-12.6</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-9.8</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-10.2</span></p></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">2009</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">5.2</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">11.2</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">12.2</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">9.5</span></p></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">2008</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">1.4</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-0.5</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">0.0</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">0.3</span></p></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">2007</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">3.3</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">0.9</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">2.7</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">2.3</span></p></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">2006</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-3.2</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-3.8</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-6.6</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-4.5</span></p></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">2005</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">3.1</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-0.2</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">0.0</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">1.0</span></p></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">2004</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">1.2</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">1.0</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-3.1</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-0.3</span></p></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">2003</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">5.2</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">6.0</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">5.3</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">5.5</span></p></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">2002</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-0.9</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-1.2</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">3.8</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">0.6</span></p></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">2001</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">0.5</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-5.4</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-0.3</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-1.7</span></p></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">2000</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-2.7</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">0.0</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-5.8</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-2.9</span></p></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">1999</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-2.4</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-4.8</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-5.3</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-4.2</span></p></td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-size: medium;" size="3"><span style="font-family: Calibri;" face="Calibri">19</span>年平均</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">0.1</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-1.3</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-1.1</span></p></td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom"><p align="center"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3">-0.8</span></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p><span style="font-size: medium;" size="3"><i>资源</i><i><span style="font-family: Calibri;" face="Calibri">: Bloomberg</span></i></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3"> </span></p><p><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: medium;" face="Calibri" size="3"> </span></p><p><b>Edmund Chan, CFA</b></p>